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Philosophical Theories of Probability
‘... a very well-presented discussion of the philosophy of probability. A
valuable contribution to the field.’
Colin Howson,
London School of Economics and Political Science
‘This book covers ground not adequately covered in any other single text,
and does so with great clarity and drive. Its discussion of the case for
interpreting probability differently in the social sciences (particularly
economics) from in the natural sciences is especially valuable.’
James Logue,
University of Oxford
The twentieth century has seen a prodigious development of probability and
statistics, and their increasing use in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated
the creation of many new philosophical ideas about probability. Yet, despite their
importance, these ideas tend to be scattered about the literature and not easily
accessible.
Philosophical Theories of Probability
is the first book to present a clear,
comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain
how they are related to one another. It deals with the classical, logical, subjective,
frequency and propensity views of probability. The relation of the various
interpretations to the Bayesian controversy, which has become central in both
statistics and philosophy of science, is explained. Donald Gillies also offers some
innovations of his own: a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability,
and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory. He
argues for a pluralist view, where there can be more than one valid interpretation
of probability, each appropriate in a different context.
This book will prove invaluable to all those interested in the philosophical views
of probability and who wish to gain a clearer understanding of the theories and
their relations.
Donald Gillies
is Professor of Philosophy of Science and Mathematics at King’s
College, University of London.
Philosophical issues in science
Edited by W. H. Newton-Smith
Balliol College, Oxford
Real History
Martin Bunzl
Brute Science
Hugh LaFollette and Niall Shanks
Verificationism
Cheryl Misak
The Nature of the Disease
Lawrie Reznek
Time, Space and Philosophy
Christopher Ray
Mathematics and Image of Reason
Mary Tiles
Evil or Ill?
Lawrie Reznek
The Ethics of Science: An introduction
David B. Resnik
Philosophy of Mathematics: An introduction to a world of proofs and pictures
James Robert Brown
Theories of Consciousness: An introduction and assessment
William Seager
Psychological Knowledge: A social history and philosophy
Martin Kusch
Is Science Value Free? Values and scientific understanding
Hugh Lacey
Scientific Realism: How science tracks truth
Stathis Psillos
Social Constructivism and the Philosophy of Science
André Kukla
Philosophical Theories of Probability
Donald Gillies
Philosophical Theories
of Probability
Donald Gillies
London and New York
First published 2000
by Routledge
11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Routledge
29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group
This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2006.
“To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s
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© 2000 Donald Gillies
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced
or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means,
now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and
recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without
permission in writing from the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available
from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Gillies, Donald, 1944-
Philosophical theories of probability / Donald Gillies.
p. cm. — (Philosophical issues in science)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Probabilities. I. Title. II. Series
BC141 .G55 2000
121’.63—dc21 00–029113
ISBN 0-203-13224-6 Master e-book ISBN
ISBN 0-203-17945-5 (Adobe eReader Format)
ISBN 0-415-18275-1 (hbk)
ISBN 0-415-18276-X (pbk)
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