Donbas and the Crimea the value of return, zrodla i książki NIE polskie
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//-->NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIESDONBAS AND THE CRIMEA:THE VALUE OF RETURNMonographAbridged and translated from UkrainianKyiv 2015Copyright © 2015 by National Institute for Strategic StudiesAll right reserved. In case of full or partial reproduction of the information providedin the publication reference to the publication is obligatory.For information:National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISS)+38 044 234-5007, +38 044 286-1959, +38 044 286-21257-a Pyrogova st., Kyiv 01030e-mail: info-niss@niss.gov.uaPrinted in UkraineDonbasand the Crimea: the value of return : monograph / under the GeneralEditorship of V.Horbulin, O.Vlasiuk, E.Libanova, O.Liashenko; translated intoEnglish by A.Kvashuk – Kyiv: NISS, 2015. – 184 pages.ISBN 978-966-554-261-2Readers are invited to study complex issues of war in the Donbas and theannexation of the Crimea. The research was carried out from the standpoint ofnational security of Ukraine. Russia’s military aggression is seen as a stress test forglobal and national security and a catalyst for rebooting Ukraine’s foreign policy.This Research analyzes the reasons and consequences of the temporary loss ofcontrol over some of Ukrainian territories. The book substantiates the position ofUkraine and covers the approaches of the EU and Russia to resolving the Donbassituation in the Minsk process. The conditions of reintegration and recoverypriorities of the Donbas are identified herein. Current publication outlines theways of overcoming the social consequences of Russia’s armed aggression againstUkraine. The author provides forecast for further developments around the Donbasand the Crimea and scenarios of the future of Ukraine in the globalized world.The results of the research can be useful for politicians, political analysts,senior state officials, scientists in the field of national and international securityand for all the people concerned about the future of Ukraine.ReviewersYevhen Bersheda– Doctorof Economy, Professor,Corresponding Member ofthe National Academy ofSciences of Ukraine, DeputyDirector of the LegislationInstitute of the VerkhovnaRada of Ukraine.Volodymyr Ohryzko–Ph.D., Extraordinary andPlenipotentiary Ambassadorof Ukraine, Minister ofForeign Affairs of Ukraine(2007-2009).Oleg Rafalski– Doctorof History, Professor,Corresponding Member ofNAPS of Ukraine, Directorof The Kuras Institute ofPolitical and Ethnic Studiesof NAS of Ukraine.Editor in ChiefVolodymyr Horbulin–Doctor of Engineering,Professor, Academicianof The National Academyof Sciences of Ukraine,Director of the NationalInstitute for StrategicStudies.Editorial boardOlexandr Vlasiuk– Doctorof Economy, Professor,Corresponding Memberof the NAS of Ukraine,First Deputy Director ofthe National Institute forStrategic Studies (DeputyEditor in Chief).Ella Libanova– Doctorof Economy, Professor,Academician of NASof Ukraine, Director ofPtoukha Institute forDemography and SocialStudies.Olexandra Liashenko–Doctor of Economy,Professor, ScientificSecretary of The NationalInstitute for StrategicStudies.CONTENTSForeword....................................................................................................................................4RUSSIAN ARMED AGRESSION AS A STRESS-TESTFOR GLOBAL AND NATIONAL SECURITY......................................................................................9Section 1. Armed conflict in Ukraine in terms of geopolitics................................. 111.1. The system of international relations in the terms of Russian threat ...................161.2. The traps of geopolitical setbacks of West for the global security ......................211.3. The proactivity of Ukraine’s foreign policyin opposition to armed aggression .............................................................................271.4. Challenges of the armed aggression as a catalystfor restarting the foreign policy of Ukraine ............................................................32Section 2. Counteraction instruments against annexationof the Crimea and termporary occupationof separate Donbas territories.......................................................................................... 372.1. Russian secret services in the Crimea and Donbas: ways of counteraction ..........372.2. The features of conducting Anti-Terrorist Operation ..........................................432.3. Media-manipulating technologies of Crimea annexation ...................................49Section 3. Ukraine, the EU and Russia in the Minsk processof settling the situation in the Donbas...........................................................................55Section 4. The loss of resources due to the military actions................................. 76Section 5. Social consequences of Russian armed aggressionagainst Ukraine..................................................................................................................... 855.1. Sociodemographic losses ..............................................................................................865.2. Poblems of Internally Displaced Persons .................................................................895.3. External emmigration revitalization ..........................................................................98UKRAINE:TESTING BY ANNEXATION OF THECRIMEA......................................................... 103Section 6. Consequences of the Crimea annexation:stagnation in development and international sanctions....................................... 105DONBAS:BACK TO THE FUTURE............................................................................................. 113Section 7. Conditions of reintegrationof the temporarily occupied territories of the Donbas........................................... 1157.1. Strategy for Donbas ...................................................................................................1157.2. Political and legal issues of restoring the rule of law ..........................................121Section 8. Institutional support of restoring the economic potentialof the uncontroled territories........................................................................................... 134Section 9. Social dimension of settlement scenariosin the Donbas situation..................................................................................................... 136FUTURE OF THECRIMEA:A LONG WAY HOME..................................................................... 141Section 10. Scenario forecasts regarding the progressof the situation around Crimea....................................................................................... 14310.1. Crimea: refusal or return? ......................................................................................14310.2. Possible scenarios of returning Crimea ................................................................14510.3. Principles of the economic policy of Ukraineconcerning the annexed Crimea .............................................................................157THE SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE............................................................................................ 161Afterword.............................................................................................................................. 179Authors...................................................................................................................................1833FOREWORDLiberty is always dangerous, but it is the safest thing we have.G. FosdickResponsibility is the price we pay for our power.Winston ChurchillSince the time immemorial the life of people has been rich with problematicissues, with crises and conflicts creating the most favorable conditions for theirgreatest concentration. However, any number of problems can be reduced toseveral most significant. On the one hand, the mankind has for centuries beenconcerned about the security. The man’s desire to be safe is clear and natural,as security is the necessary and essential condition of man’s existence, thoughnot the only one. On the other hand, it has been the freedom that ensured thesufficient conditions for human life. Despite the fact that security and freedomare complementary, they at the same time have many contradictions being in-terrelated and interdependent categories.The modern world becomes more secure but at the same time it continuesto develop. In spite of the diffusion of the processes of security and development(which, in general, means the establishment of the balance between meeting theneeds of humanity and the protection of the interests of future generations),these two processes may contradict each other.Different approaches to security problems (whatever the object field maybe) may either coincide with the goals of sustainable development in differentways or contradict these goals. What is the role of freedom here? Freedomalways creates a dynamic environment for development, but this environmentcan be dangerous. Security also generates certain conditions for development,but they are essentially static and, thus, restrain or even hinder the develop-ment. Even if we consider security as a certain degree of freedom, such restric-tive framework can be a sort of “checkpoint” of development, which, unfortu-nately, does not protect it from barriers and obstacles1. Nevertheless, securityand freedom, as well as security and development do not strongly oppose eachother and are rather considered united with the manifestations of “outbreaks”of the struggle between them at certain times. One of these modern “out-breaks” made the eternal questions of security and freedom climax for Ukraine.Юсуф Ш.Эко�½омика развития сквозь десятилетия. Критический взгляд �½а30 лет подготовки Докладов о мировом развитии. – М.: Изд-во «Весь Мир», 240с.; Fundamental analysis of “Reports...” of the World Bank confirms thesis about con-tradiction of development and safety (widely – providing peace).14ForewordIn a simplified consideration it may seem that now this climax focusesonly on several issues.The Minsk negotiations:should they be prolonged till the next year, andif so, what the reincarnation should be?Local elections:how to make possible their legitimate and safe conducton the whole territory of Ukraine?Thequestionof all timesaboutthe “crime and punishment”:amnestyforthe leaders and members of terrorist groups.The primary problem is not even whether there is any correct answer to atleast one of these questions. Despite blocking any decision to solve those issues,the uncertainty about the measure of “correctness” of the solutions is not themost crucial either. The problem is that the answers to these questions are notfocused on “today for today” regime. Their “target” is the future. Fluctuationsaround the answers may lead either to the massive futurological shock or thefurther fragile security of development of Ukraine and the whole world.Those three seemingly simple questions provoke an entire network of newquestions, the answers to which can hardly be staffed even into the complexdecision tree.The answers to such questions cannot be univocal, indispu-table and undoubtedly correct,so the subsequent research applies the scenar-io approach to solving Ukraine’s crucial problems.The monograph isfundamentally different from all previous attemptsmade by the scientists in various fields of knowledge, journalists, and civilactivists to highlight the delicate topic of the annexation of the Crimeaand the war in Donbas.The first difference of the research lies in its comprehensiveness reflectedin the unification of the Donbas and Crimea issues. The research is not eclec-tic; it allows the reader to trace the common perquisites of two problems.The second difference concerns the predictive focus of the study. In con-trast to previous scientific and publicist works, this study is aimed not at theretrospective but at the prospective analysis of the developments and trendsreflected in the description of possible scenarios to resolve them.The last and the most significant difference is the approach to the studiedproblems solely from the point of national security of Ukraine. That is whythe question of “unity and struggle” of security and freedom of plays a lead-ing role in all the proposed scenarios for the future. Not the future of Donbasitself. Not the future of the Crimea itself. But the future of security and free-dom in Ukraine in the hazardous globalized world.So what is the monograph “Donbas and the Crimea: the value ofreturn” about?The unflagging primary problem for Ukraine is to ensure national se-curity.Neither the annexed Crimea nor temporarily occupied territories of5
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